In 2012 in CA-07, 280,000 people voted in the race for Congressional seat #7. Dr. Ami Bera (Democrat) won that seat and Obama won a second term. In 2014 when there was no Presidential race on the ballot, many people skipped that election. In 2016 they returned. How bad is the midterm skipping problem? This graph makes it clear.
So what are we going to do about it?
In 2014 50,000 votes previously won by the Democrat Ami Bera skipped voting altogether. This election was unbelievably close and the Democrat only won by less than 1% - 1,455 votes. These missing 50,000 people included 13,000 registered Democrats. REGISTERED DEMOCRATS skipping elections! These blue dots are where they live in CA-07.
We went to a voter file vendor and bought the names, addresses and voter history of all 13,000 people. At 2.5 cents each, it only cost us a few hundred bucks. Then we put them into Nationbuilder, generated walk lists, and sent canvassing teams out to talk to them. Canvassers loved it. We're only talking to Democrats so the conversations are often very friendly and there's no arguing alternative facts with Trump voters. When we knock on a door and get a Democrat, we're friendly and don't accuse them of skipping an election, we just tell them we're helping out with a reminder service and hand them two blank postcards:
We have them fill out one for the June 2018 Primary Election and one for the November 2018 General election. And then we take the cards back, promising to mail them back to them right before each election in May and October of 2018.
Success was high! These people are pretty spread out, so you often have to drive between canvassing houses and average one door knock every 6 minutes. Close rate is good too, with roughly half the conversations resulting in signed postcards.
The number of mid-term skipping democrats dwarfs the win margin of the last three elections, so if we can get a notable number of these skippers to change their behavior, we can have a huge effect on the next midterm election.
We're excited to engage these people, and hope that you will join us. You can volunteer for our upcoming events by filling out a volunteer form and we'll notify you of the next event.