The El Dorado County (EDC) Democratic Party, which is running a CAT-style voter reactivation project in their county, has studied the voter universe most amenable to re-activation. It is this universe that we are focusing on as we volunteer to canvass for their events.
EDC is fortunate to have an enthusiastic and mature volunteer data team. They not only spend a lot of time studying voter data, but have also pioneered the configuration of the mobile canvassing app. Over a series of conversations CAT leaders shared with the EDC data team the previous successes we had and the EDC Data Team used that in studying past performance of voters in the district.
The district has a very high percentage of voters that vote by mail, and the county is adopting all-by-mail voting this cycle, much as Sacramento County did last cycle. When El Dorado County studied their electorate that was likely to forget to vote in either the upcoming primary or general 2020 election, they came up with registered Democrats who:
- had never voted yet and were likely to forget to vote in something as poorly publicized as a primary; or
- had voted before, but had missed a previous Presidential year election.
(Note that our universe changes in size from time to time due to moves, re-registrations, and deaths. This number may not match exactly the size of the universe at later times.)
The EDC data team also used a facility in their voter database to identify voters who likely vote Democratic, but had registered with No Party Preference (NPP). This category of voters is the largest growing segment of the electorate and cracking into this segment is a bit like finding an unmined vein of gold. The EDC Data team identified Democratic leaning voters who registered as No Party Preference. As we started our initial canvasses we all held our breath: will the NPP voters we visit be hostile? Is the data model wrong? Will they all be wearing Trump MAGA hats?
Thus far we've had no empirical reason to doubt the model. NPP Voters have been just as receptive (and Democratic leaning) as we hoped. For us, this is potentially the biggest success story of the election as activist groups around the country have studied ways of reaching NPP Voters. Below are some demographic data about the voter universe provided to us from the EDC data team.